DEAD HEAT! PNP, JLP locked in a tussle a week away from election day

Published in the Jamaica Gleaner: Sunday | August 26, 2007

Byron Buckley, Associate Editor>

As Hurricane Dean approached the island a week ago, the electorate was at a crossroad about which party should form the next government.

A Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll, conducted on the eve of the hurricane's passage, measured popular support for the People's National Party (PNP) and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) at 40 per cent each.

This means that the Opposition JLP has advanced two percentage points since Johnson's August 11 poll results which had placed the party at 38 per cent. The ruling PNP, which had then received 40 per cent of popular support, has remained stationary.

With the parties in lock step, Johnson's latest poll results, with an error margin of plus or minus three per cent, indicate that men are split down the middle in their support - 40 per cent each - for the PNP and JLP. Five per cent of men remain undecided and one per cent is not prepared to vote.

In addition, electoral support among women are nearly split equally - 41 per cent for the PNP and 39 per cent for the JLP. Nine per cent of women remain undecided, and a similar number say they will not cast a ballot.

According to Johnson's latest poll findings, most electors had long ago made up their minds about which party they are going to give their franchise on September 3.

Eighty two per cent of PNP supporters say they always knew they will vote for the party, while 71 per cent of JLP supporters express similar views. But more (19 per cent) JLP supporters only made up their minds more than a month ago, compared to 13 per cent PNP supporters, who made the decision to vote during the same period.

Johnson argues that this late movement among JLP supporters has created "positive momentum" for the party. In addition to traditional supporters, in recent weeks the swing or uncommitted voters have been joining the ranks of the JLP.

The latest poll, conducted among 1,008 persons in 84 communities islandwide found that the number of 'undecided' and 'would not vote' electors have dropped by five points since July, while the PNP's standing has remained unchanged during the period. For the same period, the JLP gained six points in popular support.