Short on trust - Simpson Miller - 61%, Golding - 47%

Published in the Jamaica Gleaner: Sunday | July 29, 2007

By: Daraine Luton, Sunday Gleaner Reporter

Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and Opposition Leader Bruce Golding are each being handicapped on the campaign trail by significant levels of distrust among electors - 33 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, according to the findings of a Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll.

But while Simpson Miller can mitigate the impact of the distrust toward her with a 61 per cent credibility rating, Golding has to make do with 47 per cent.

On July 14 and 15, Johnson's polling team sought responses from 1,008 residents in 84 communities across Jamaica to the question, 'If Opposition Leader Bruce Golding makes a promise to do something if the Jamaica labour Party (JLP) is elected, do you trust him to actually do this, or do you think he might do it, or do you think he probably won't do it, or don't you trust him at all to keep any promises he makes for the election?'

Those who trust golding

Of the 47 per cent of respondents who indicated trust in Golding, 26 per cent were definite and 21 per cent were likely. Conversely, of the 43 per cent of persons interviewed, 38 per cent said they definitely would not trust Golding to keep his election promise, while five per cent said they probably would.

When respondents - 52 per cent men and 48 per cent women - were asked a similar question about Prime Minister Simpson Miller, those who said they trusted her totalled 61 per cent. When disaggregated, this figure represents 42 per cent who definitely trust her and 19 per cent who probably do.

On the contrary, 28 per cent of respondents said they did not trust the Prime Minister to keep her promise; five per cent believed she probably would not keep her promises, while six per cent shared no view. The poll, done one week after the Prime Minister announced the August 27 general election, has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

Platform campaigns

Even before intensive campaigning began during the last few months, the People's National Party (PNP) and the JLP had outlined their vision for the country. The JLP has built its campaign platform on providing tuition free education at the secondary level, free health care as well as job creation. Simpson Miller also has identified the provision of water, the transformation of education and training, justice reform, job creation and the development of roads as some of the major priorities of the PNP. Each party is yet to issue manifestos.

Pollster Johnson said his team of researchers did not enquire into what accounted for the people trusting Simpson Miller more than Golding. However, the pollster theorised that people tend "to believe someone who they like than someone who they dislike". Golding's favourability rating is far lower than Simpson Miller's, and the PNP has been spending lots of time, both in the form of advertisements and on the platform, attacking Golding's credibility.

"Put him here beside me and ask the people to choose who they trust more ... Portia, Portia, Portia all the time," Simpson Miller boasted recently on the campaign trail.

The PNP has made much of Golding's political turncoating - leaving the JLP to form the National Democratic Movement (NDM), then returning to the JLP after the NDM failed to make a significant impression on the electorate.

Distrust of public trust

Charlene Sharpe-Pryce, a Northern Caribbean University lecturer, and political commentator, has argued that "the lack of public trust in politicians is a growing feature of liberal democracies across the world, as many electors no longer trust elected officials to keep their promises or to look out for the interests of ordinary citizens".

Sharpe-Pryce added: "It might not be so much that the potential electors are not trusting Bruce [Golding] but that they are not trusting the JLP's stance on free education and possibly free health care and exponential job creation, given the economic and social realities of Jamaica. The electors are tired and would have heard these promises before from both political parties, but to what avail?"

On the campaign trail, Simpson Miller has projected herself as the trusted visionary and has been telling potential voters that a vote for the PNP candidate in their area is "a vote for Portia".

However, despite being perceived as more trustworthy than Golding, the Prime Minister, who is being presented as her party's 'hope' for a fifth term, cannot consider her trust rating as safe territory, according to Sharpe-Pryce.

"Charismatic leadership does not usually present with a middle ground on the emotional scale; the leader is either liked or not liked. With a third of respondents seemingly not trusting her, then the Portia factor might not be as strong as is needed to secure this fifth term," Sharpe-Pryce reasoned.