CAMPAIGNING FOR the October 16 general election has intensified since the September 22 announcement of the election date by Prime Minister P.J. Patterson.

Since that time, there have been interesting developments with Bruce Golding, former Member of Parliament and former Chairman of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) returning to the fold. He is expected to give a much needed boost to the JLP which has been trailing the People's National Party (PNP) in recent public opinion polls. Although the election is now only 16 days away, it is still too early to determine what impact Mr. Golding's return after seven years, will have on its outcome.

Whether or not he helps the JLP to reverse its sagging fortunes and return to form the Government after more than 13 years in the political wilderness, is left to be seen. Regardless of the outcome, however, he could, to some extent, determine the make-up of the new Parliament after the election.

It was at a Gleaner Editors' Forum earlier this month that JLP Leader Edward Seaga said he would have no hesitation in appointing Mr. Golding, considered one of the country's brightest political minds, an Independent Senator. That pronouncement fuelled debate of a possible peace deal between the two men which culminated with last Wednesday's return of Mr. Golding.

Long before Mr. Golding's departure in 1995 to form the National Democratic Movement, he was seen as Mr. Seaga's heir apparent. With questions raised about the second tier leadership of the JLP, it is now expected that win or lose, with Mr. Seaga being 72 years old, Mr. Golding will hold a senior position in the post-election JLP.

Just last Friday Mr. Golding was asked at a Gleaner Editors' Forum whether the JLP could pull off an election win, despite the odds stacked against the party. He said: "I can never say that it will. I think that there's a lot out there that suggest that it is going to be a close election. The elections, I think, are going to be ultimately won on a tight seat count where constituencies are going to be won or lost by pretty small margins. It is a question of who gets more small margins in their favour."

If that scenario holds true, there are a number of seats that either of the two major parties must win, moreso the JLP, if the party is to form the next Government. Three of these seats, all now held by the JLP, must be closely watched. They are North East St. Ann, the domain of Shahine Robinson; West Central St. Andrew held by Andrew Holness, and North East St. Catherine with Abe Dabdoub as sitting MP.

Described as "PNP country" North East St. Ann was easily won by Danny Melville for the PNP in the December 1997 general election. He quit representational politics just over three years later, citing frustration with the way politics is practised in Jamaica. A confident Carol Jackson, businesswoman representing the PNP, was beaten by Mrs. Robinson, businesswoman, in a by-election in March 2001. Reportedly some 2,000 PNP supporters turned off by the 'neglect' of the Government did not vote. A few thousand electors would have been added to the voters' list since 1997 and it is now left to be seen which of the two, Robinson or Jackson, will make it to Gordon House after October 16.

A tight race is also expected in West Central St. Andrew where Mr. Holness defeated Dr. Warren Blake of the PNP by a mere 43 votes. This was after the original poll on December 18, 1997 had shown Mr. Holness as the winner. It was soon voided by the Constituted Authority which pointed to discrepancies in several polling divisions. Dr. Blake was declared winner by 188 votes the second time around but this too was voided and a retake of the polls ordered. On the third occasion, Mr. Holness came up trumps, but only just.

Vowing to regain the seat, the PNP has replaced the medical practitioner with Patrick Roberts of Shocking Vibes fame. Whether the entertainer, who is reputed to have a strong youth following in the garrison constituency, is able to defeat the young business executive, is left to be seen.

In the case of St. Catherine North East, the PNP will be keen to regain a seat which it lost in the Election Court, midway the life of the last Parliament. Mrs. Mitchell had eked out a slim victory over Mr. Dabdoub, who took the matter to court citing voter irregularities and intimidation, among other charges. On June 29, 2001, Election Court Judge Basil Reid reversed the original 1997 general election tally to give Mr. Dabdoub a 23-vote majority.

All three seats, along with some others, are likely to be closely contested on election day. Like Mr. Golding has observed, the party which gets more small margins in its favour is likely to emerge the victor.