Patterson	Seaga

POLITICAL observers say the outcome of the general election could well hinge on how well either

of the major political parties handles the question of leadership succession within its ranks.

They say the party which appears best organized in this regard should have a decisive edge going into the election, especially since voters know they would be more than likely be seeing the last of Prime Minister P.J. Patterson and Opposition Leader Edward Seaga after over 30 years of a bitter-sweet political rivalry.

Both men entered the political arena in the 1960s from opposite sides of the aisle and for the past 10 years have engaged in head to head combats as leaders of their respective parties.

Prime Minister Patterson and Mr. Seaga have indicated within the past two weeks that this election campaign might well be their last. The Prime Minister in particular was very candid when asked the question at a Gleaner's Editors Forum.

"I feel that there comes a time when a change is needed. There are a number of people within the party, some more obvious than others, who I think not only qualify for succession, but who have the capacity to ensure that the traditions laid by Michael Manley, inherited from Norman Manley, which I hope I have been able to perpetuate and build upon will be continued," he said.

Mr. Seaga, when asked the same question a week later by the Gleaner editors, notes that "I do not travel with a timetable in my pocket...I tell you that quite frankly. I decided to go the route of public life because I saw public life as the arena in which I could expound policies and implement policies that would help to close this awkward gap that I encountered when I lived for three and a half-years in rural and urban innercity communities, and on that basis there is a mission to be fulfilled," the Opposition Leader said. And I have said I might not see the end of this fulfillment, I rather doubt if I would, but I want to see it."

For politcal analyst Tony Myers "...the question of succession is critical and could well decide which party wins the election. The Prime Minister has told me personally that he will be stepping down as leader of the People's National Party (PNP) shortly after the election, regardless of the outcome. I don't know the thinking of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) even though not many are expecting Mr. Seaga to carry on much longer. The election will not just be about electing a Government it will also be about electing a future leader."

Dr. D.K. Duncan, columnist and political commentator, while agreeing that leadership succession could play a vital role in the outcome of the election, feels the team that either party puts together if elected to Government will be the key. "That will be more of a factor than who emerges as leader," Dr. Duncan said. "The electorate would want to know there is a quality team ready to take over the mantle of Government."

Mr. Seaga at the Gleaner Forum said that while a successor would more than likely come from the group comprising his four deputy leaders; Audley Shaw, Derrick Smith, Babsy Grange and Edmund Bartlett, there was the possibility of someone emerging from the Senate. He also noted that he would have no "hesitation in recommending Bruce Golding as an Independent Senator. Mr. Golding when contacted last week said he would have no problem serving his country in whatever capacity so as long as it coincided with his own convictions.

The Sunday Gleaner was unable to get a comment from any of the likely JLP contenders except for Ms. Grange who notes that "it is not something I am preoccupied with."

"Politics is about doing the people's work which is what I am doing," she said. "The leadership thing is not something I have thought about...it doesn't weigh on my mind at all. I am also cognisant of the fact that situations do arise that one hadn't planned for...such is the nature of politics."

For the PNP, Ministers Portia Simpson Miller, Dr. Peter Phillips, Dr. Omar Davies and the party's General Secretary Maxine Henry-Wilson are the group, observers say, from which Mr. Patterson's likely successor will emerge. "Most people are of the view that it is a straight fight between Mrs. Simpson Miller and Dr. Phillips but that is not cast in stone," explained Lloyd B Smith, publisher and political commentator. "There could be a dark horse that emerges from somewhere."

The Sunday Gleaner was unable to get a comment from both Dr. Davies and Mrs. Henry-Wilson.

Mrs. Simpson Miller, contacted on Friday, said she was very busy with the political campaign and had given no thought as to whether she would make another run for leadership of the PNP. In an earlier interview she had said that "the people of Jamaica are my strength...they are the ones who give me my inspiration." Mrs. Simpson Miller lost out to Mr. Patterson in 1992 for leadership of the party following the resignation of Prime Minister Michael Manley.

Dr. Phillips, considered by many to be the front-runner in terms of delegate support, was very forthright when contacted by The Sunday Gleaner on Friday.

"It is not something I go to my bed or wake up thinking about," he said. "I have said this about a million times that politics is all about service. If the people and the party feel that I am capable of taking over the leadership of the party if that opportunity should ever arise then certainly it is something I would have to think about. I would also have to be comfortable knowing that I am capable of doing it."