Home
» History »
CONSTITUENCY
PROFILE: PORTLAND
EASTERN
PNP set to hit the tape
By
Anthony Myers
Contributor
Thirty-two
constituencies were fixed in the new Constitution granted
to Jamaica in 1944. Portland was among the 10 parishes that
were divided into two
constituencies and among six parishes with similarly-named
boundaries -eastern
and western.
The
constituency of Portland Eastern is bounded by the following:
From a point where the Guava River crosses the St. Thomas/Portland
parish boundary at Macuna Hill, easterly along the St. Thomas/Portland
parish boundary to the seacoast, along the seacoast to the
mouth of the Rio Grande at
St. Margaret's Bay and along the Rio Grande to where it meets
the Guava River.
It then goes along the Guava River back to the starting point
at the Portland/St.
Thomas boundary. Portland
Eastern featured in all of the 12 contested parliamentary
general elections,
1944-1997. The PNP won seven times to the JLP's three, and
an Independent
candidate, two times.
Portland
Eastern is the only constituency in Jamaica to have had an
Independent
candidate - Harold E. Allan - winning two consecutive terms
- in
1944 and 1949. It is interesting to note that the JLP and
the PNP did not
contest the Portland Easter seat in 1944 and it was therefore
left to two
Independent candidates - T. Adrian Gray and Harold E. Allan
- to take up
the challenge. Harold Allan by polling 7,542 votes had a convincing
victory
over T. Adrian Gray who polled 4,067. In the 1949 general
election, Sir
Harold Allan again successfully contested the seat as an Independent,
increasing
his 1944 majority of 3,475 by 931; polling 8,714 votes to
L.E. Dillon's
(PNP) 4,308 - a majority of 4,406.
In
spite of running on an Independent ticket, Sir Harold Allan
had the distinction of being Jamaica's first Minister of Finance,
1944-1953 during the JLP administration 1944-1955, a unique
and remarkable achievement. It is instructive to look at the
voting pattern from 1944 to 1997. The PNP's
victories were in 1959, 1967, 1972, 1976, 1989, 1993 and 1997.
The JLP
won in 1955, 1962 and 1980. In 1955, Kenneth A. Jones (JLP),
by polling 8,577
votes defeated by 2,199, T. Adrian Gray (PNP), who polled
6,378. In the
1959 general election, Kenneth Jones lost the Portland Eastern
seat to the
PNP's Kenneth G. Wright - PNP 7,459, JLP 6,899.
In
1962 Kenneth Jones turned the tables by dethroning Kenneth
Wright, as he polled
8,105 votes to the incumbent's 6,375, a majority of 1,730.
The JLP lost
the constituency in the next three general elections - 1967,
1972 and 1976
- regaining control in 1980 when Anthony Abrahams polled 10,196
votes to
the PNP's Keith Rhodd's 7,827 and Mable Phillips's (IND.)
93.
The
1983 general election was not contested by the PNP, consequently
Gerald A.
Tucker (JLP), was elected unopposed by acclamation. The PNP
had a convincing
victory in 1989, as Headley S. Lawrence polled 8,799 to the
JLP's
Dennis M. Wright's 6,426, a majority of 2,373. It was much
closer in 1993
as the incumbent Headley S. Lawrence polled 5,300 votes to
Percival Latouche's
(JLP), 3,778 and Lawrence L. Robertson's (IND.), 1,387, an
absolute
majority of only 135. The fact that L.L. Robertson, a former
PNP activist,
ran as an Independent, contributed significantly to the reduced
margin
of victory of H.S. Lawrence. This
was consolidated in the 1997 results for Portland Eastern
as Dr. Donald
Rhodd, son of Keith Rhodd who won for the PNP in 1976, by
polling 7,737
votes to the JLP's Samuel Roberts's 4,438, the NDM's Mernell
Green Lindner's
213 and Percival Latouche's (IND.) 173, had a convincing absolute
majority
of 2,913.
Portland
Eastern can be classified as a `weather vane` constituency.
This theory is supported by the fact that the JLP lost the
1959 general election and the PNP won Portland Eastern. In
1962, the PNP lost Portland Eastern and the general election.
The
1967 general election result was the closest in terms of votes
polled when
compared to the period 1955 to 1962 and 1972 to 1997 - (PNP
217,207, JLP
224,180; majority for the JLP, 6,973.) Although the PNP won
the Portland
Eastern constituency, the margin was a mere 68. In 1972 the
PNP won
the seat and the general election, only to lose both the seat
and the general
election to the JLP in 1980. The trend continued in 1989,
1993 and 1997
with the PNP winning all three general elections by wide margins
in terms
of seats and popular votes and indeed a hat trick of victories
in Portland
Eastern.
The
PNP's support in Portland Eastern is now at its weakest since
the 1980 JLP/PNP
contest. The projected lead for the PNP is 1,184 compared
with the 1997
victory margin over the JLP of 3,066. With the current voters'
list having
23,234 electors, a 6.5% increase over the 1997 list (21,811),
the
PNP's
support would have to nose-dive significantly over the next
three to four
months for the JLP to be victorious. However, politics being
the art of
the possible, one cannot rule out a JLP victory. A
loss for the PNP would most certainly take the party off course
in its quest
for an unprecedented fourth term. In a very keen contest,
the PNP will
hit the tape just ahead of the JLP.
General
Election (Parliamentary) - Projection 2002
2002:
|
|
E/L |
23,234 |
A/B
|
13,404
(57.7%) |
PNP
|
7,294
(54.4%) |
JLP
|
6,110
(45.6%) |
Majority
(PNP)
|
1,184 |
General
Elections (Summary) 1944-1997
1944
|
|
E/L |
19,112 |
B/C |
13,347 |
A/B
|
11,609 |
R/B
|
1,738 |
Harold
E. Allan, IND.
|
7,542 |
T.
Adrian Gray, IND.
|
4,067 |
1949
|
|
E/L |
19,977 |
B/C
|
15,066 |
A/B
|
14,789 |
R/B
|
277 |
Sir
Harold E. Allan, IND.
|
8,714 |
L.E.
Dillon, PNP
|
4,308 |
Edgar
Altamont Hall, IND. |
1,767 |
1955
|
|
E/L |
20,248 |
B/C
|
15,127 |
A/B |
14,955
|
R/B
|
172 |
T.
Adrian Gray, PNP
|
6,378 |
Kenneth
A. Jones, JLP |
8,577
|
1959
|
|
E/L |
21,270 |
B/C
|
14,474 |
A/B
|
14,358 |
R/B
|
116 |
Kenneth
A. Jones, JLP
|
6,899 |
Kenneth
G. Wright, PNP
|
7,459 |
1962
|
|
E/L |
19,132 |
B/C
|
14,556 |
A/B
|
14,480 |
R/B |
76
|
Kenneth
A. Jones, JLP
|
8,105 |
Kenneth
G. Wright, PNP
|
6,375 |
1967
|
|
E/L |
15,356 |
B/C
|
13,066 |
A/B
|
12,992 |
R/B |
74
|
Clement
T. Afflick, JLP
|
6,462 |
Kenneth
George Wright, PNP
|
6,530 |
1972
|
|
E/L |
16,438 |
B/C
|
13,119 |
A/B
|
13,060 |
R/B
|
59 |
Lascelles
B. Tucker, JLP
|
5,869 |
Kenneth
George Wright, PNP |
7,164 |
1976
|
|
E/L |
19,834 |
B/C
|
16,823 |
A/B
|
16,725 |
R/B
|
98 |
Anthony
Abrahams, JLP
|
7,433 |
Keith
Rhodd, PNP
|
9,292 |
1980
|
|
E/L |
20,981 |
B/C
|
18,229 |
A/B
|
18,166 |
R/B
|
113 |
Anthony
Abrahams, JLP
|
10,196 |
Keith
Rhodd, PNP
|
7,827 |
Mable
Phillips, IND.
|
93
|
1983
|
|
E/L |
20,981 |
B/C
|
|
A/B
|
|
R/B
|
|
Gerald
Tucker, JLP |
- Elected unopposed by acclamation
|
1989
|
|
E/L |
20,644 |
B/C
|
15,325 |
A/B
|
15,225 |
R/B |
100
|
Headley
S. Lawrence, PNP
|
8,799 |
Dennis
M. Wright, JLP
|
6,426 |
1993
|
|
E/L |
18,442 |
B/C
|
10,536 |
A/B
|
10,465 |
R/B
|
71 |
Headley
S. Lawrence, PNP
|
5,300 |
Percival
Latouche, JLP |
3,778
|
Lawrence
L. Robertson
|
1,387 |
1997
|
|
E/L |
21,811 |
B/C
|
12,588
(57.7%) |
A/B
|
12,561
(99.8%) |
R/B
|
27
(0.2%) |
Donald
Rhodd, PNP
|
7,737
(61.6%) |
Samuel
Roberts, JLP
|
4,438
(35.3%) |
Mernell
Green-Lindner, NDM
|
213
(1.7%) |
Pervical
Latouche, IND.
|
173
(1.4%) |
NOTE:
|
|
E/L: |
Electors
on List |
B/C:
|
Ballots
Cast |
A/B:
|
Accepted
Ballots |
R/B:
|
Rejected
Ballots |
Anthony
Myers is a statistician and political analyst who has done work
for the Electoral Office of Jamaica and for the People's National
Party.
|