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CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: CLARENDON
SOUTH EASTERN
PNP
could defy the odds
Anthony Myers
Contributor
IN
SPITE of the power pendulum swinging in the JLP's favour in
Clarendon South Eastern in the upcoming general election,
the incumbent MP who is the PNP's candidate could defy the
odds.
In
1959 as a result of an advancement in the Constitution, 45
constituencies were provided for Jamaica, an increase of 13
constituencies over the 32 which had been fixed in 1944.
This
necessitated new maps and new descriptions for all the new
constituencies. Clarendon South Eastern was among the 13 newly-created
constituencies.
Of
the seven contested parliamentary general elections from 1959
to 1997, the JLP won five times compared to two for the PNP.
Clarendon South Eastern which evolved from the former constituency
of Clarendon Southern has a unique history, in that it produced
two Prime Ministers -- Sir Alexander Bustamante, 1962-1967,
and Rt. Hon. Hugh Shearer, 1967-1972. In 1959 and 1962 "JLP
river overflowed its banks", as Alexander Bustamante
overwhelmed his PNP opponents with landslide victories. When
Sir Alexander Bustamante retired in 1967 the mantle fell on
Hugh Shearer to contest the newly-created Clarendon Southern
seat which he won by a 2,925 majority. In the 1972 general
election, the incumbent Prime Minister retained his seat in
a close contest by polling 5,136 votes to 4,793 for Amador
Gilman (PNP), a majority of 343.
In
the 1976 Constituencies (Boundaries) realignment Clarendon
Southern was removed from the parish and Clarendon South Eastern
restored. Hugh Shearer contested for the JLP and defeated
Ronald Powell (PNP), by 2,134 votes.
In
1980 Hugh Shearer polled 9,712 votes to defeat by a majority
of 6,534, Churchill Henry (PNP), who polled 3,178 votes. There
was a dramatic turnaround in 1989 when, Hugh Shearer polled
7,299 votes to 7,295 for Emanuel Cousins (PNP) 7, an unprecedented
majority of four. The writing was clearly on the wall as in
1993 the master trade unionist, former Prime Minister and
veteran politician lost the Clarendon South Eastern seat to
Peter Bunting of the PNP. The JLP got 5,215 votes and the
PNP, 6,658 - a majority 1,443. In 1997, JLP candidate Edwin
Singh by polling 7,242 votes was defeated by Basil Burrell
(PNP), who polled 7,296 votes - a majority of 54.
In
what could then be classified as a borderline constituency
the PNP eked out a very slim margin of victory. Can the PNP
in 2002 make it a "hat-trick" of victories in a
once JLP dominated constituency? With a slight increase in
the current voters' list over the 1997 list, the JLP has an
excellent chance of turning the table on the PNP in the upcoming
general election. Choice of candidates will make quite a difference
in the outcome of this contest. In spite of the power pendulum
moving in the JLP's favour the incumbent could defy the odds.
GENERAL
ELECTIONS (SUMMARY) 1959 -- 1997 CLARENDON SOUTH EASTERN
1959
|
|
E/L |
20,623 |
B/C |
12,108 |
A/B |
11,999 |
R/B |
109 |
B.H.
Bridge, PNP |
3,997 |
Hugh
C. Buchanan, CIP |
196 |
Alexander
Bustamante, JLP |
7,806 |
1962
|
|
E/L |
17,934 |
B/C |
11,854 |
A/B |
11,752 |
R/B |
102 |
Alexander
Bustamante, JLP |
9,187 |
Fitzgerald
Lambert, PNP |
2,244 |
Eustace
C. Lewis, PPP |
321 |
1976
|
|
E/L |
13,924 |
B/C |
11,612 |
A/B |
11,550 |
R/B |
62 |
Ronald
Powell, PNP |
4,708 |
Hugh
Shearer, JLP |
6,842 |
1980
|
|
E/L |
15,190 |
B/C |
12,978 |
A/B |
12,890 |
R/B |
88 |
Hugh
Shearer, JLP |
9,712 |
Churchill
Henry, PNP |
3,178 |
1989
|
|
E/L |
19,435 |
B/C |
14,645 |
A/B |
14,594 |
R/B |
51 |
Emanuel
Cousins, PNP |
7,295 |
Hugh
Shearer, JLP |
7,299 |
1993
|
|
E/L |
18,505 |
B/C |
12,189 |
A/B |
1,783 |
R/B |
316 |
Peter
Bunting, PNP |
6,658 |
Hugh
Shearer, JLP |
5,215 |
1997
|
|
E/L |
23,153 |
B/C |
15,100
(65.2%) |
A/B |
14,968
(99.1%) |
R/B |
132
( 0.9%) |
Basil
Burrell, PNP |
7,296
(48.7%) |
Ewin
Singh, JLP |
7,242
(48.4%) |
St.
Andrade Sinclair, NDM |
430
( 2.9%) |
NOTE:
|
|
E/L: |
Electors
on List |
B/C: |
Ballots
Cast |
A/B: |
Accepted
Ballots |
R/B: |
Rejected
Ballots |
Anthony
Myers is a statistician and political analyst who has done
work for the Electoral Office of Jamaica and for the People's
National Party.
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