Anthony Myers
Contributor

ST. JAMES Southern was created in 1976 when the number of constituencies in the parish was increased by one from three to four. The constituency of St. James Southern has the following boundaries:

From where the northern boundary of Eden Estate meets the Greater River, easterly along the southern boundary of Wiltshire Estate to the northern boundary of the Anchovy Bottom Estate and north easterly along this boundary to a track. It then goes south-easterly along this track to where it meets parochial road No. 29, Montpelier, northerly along this road to where it meets parochial road No. 27, Montpelier, south-easterly along parochial road No. 27, Montpelier, to where it meets parochial road No. 16 Montpelier at Turtle Pond. From there it goes to Wales Pond, then to parochial road No. 10, Montpelier, south-easterly along this road to the northern boundary of Concordia, then easterly to parochial road No. 23, Springfield, and southerly along this road to its intersection with parochial road No. 18, Montpelier. It then travels north-westerly along this road to where it meets parochial road No. 7, Montpelier, to a track at the Mafoota River. From there it goes easterly along this track to where it meets parochial road No. 17 Springfield, then north-easterly along parochial road No. 18, Springfield, to parochial road No. 76, Springfield, northerly along this road to where it meets the Welcome Hall-Mount Horeb main road. From there it goes southerly along this main road to where it meets parochial road No. 45 Springfield, along this main road to where it meets the Sutherland main road at Stapleton. It then travels northerly along this main road to where it meets the Newman Hall main road, easterly along this road to a track leading through Mount Par-nassus to the western boundary of Bowland, along this boundary to a track in Castle Wheymss, then easterly and southerly along this track to the northern boundary of Mount Lebanon. From there it goes easterly along this boundary to the northern boundary of Chatsworth, then along this boundary to the Springvale main road, north easterly along this main road to the St. James-Trelawny parish boundary. It then goes southerly along this parish boundary to the St. James-St. Elizabeth parish boundary, along this parish boundary to the Greater River, northerly along this river to the starting point at the northern boundary of East Estate.

Of the five contested elections 1976-1997 the PNP won in 1976, 1989, 1993 and 1997, the JLP winning in 1980. In 1976 Upton Robotham polled 6,799 votes to defeat by 1,688 votes, Marco Brown of the JLP, who polled 5,111 votes.

Upton Robotham hung up his gloves prior to the 1980 general election and was replaced by Rudolph Scarlett. In the 1980 election Marco Brown polled 7,590 to 5,000 for Rudolph Scarlett, a convincing majority of 2,590. With the PNP not contesting the 1983 snap election the incumbent Marco Brown was returned unopposed.

In 1989 Derrick Kellier accepted the challenge to represent the PNP in St. James Southern. By polling 7,980 votes, he devastated his JLP opponent Ephraim Morgan who polled 3,858 votes; independent candidate Princess Vernon polled 452 votes. In 1993 Derrick Kellier was no less convincing in victory as he polled 5,915 votes compared to 2,656 for his old rival Ephraim Morgan (JLP). In 1997 with the PNP seeking an unprecedented third term at the polls, the South St. James incumbent retained his seat by an amazing majority of 3,657 votes. Polling 7,106 votes, he defeated no less a person than the man dubbed "Governor of the West", Lloyd B. Smith, eminent journalist-turned-politician, who polled 3,449 votes. Lincoln Hew, the NDM candidate, polled a mere 496 votes thus losing his deposit.

Based on the strong support given to the PNP in the 1989, 1993 and 1997 elections, the incumbent Derrick Kellier is confidently expected to make it four in a row. St. James Southern is a safe seat for the PNP.

GENERAL ELECTION (PARLIAMENTARY) - PROJECTION

Anthony Myers is a statistician and political analyst who has done work for the Electoral Office of Jamaica and for the People's National Party.