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Editorial - Elections and business confidence
THE
latest Business Confidence Survey conducted by the Jamaica
Chamber Board the research arm of the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce
indicates that the sector remains confident about the future.
Interestingly the Index was only slightly higher than the
previous quarter (117.7) but this was 14% higher than in the
same quarter one year ago and the highest for any quarter
during the past year. Quite significantly, firms were more
optimistic about the performance of the overall Jamaican economy
than they were about their individual firms. As a result the
Index Business Expectation fell marginally.
On
the downside, it is noteworthy that despite the overall optimism
exhibited by local businesses, they were somewhat more cautious
about whether it was a good time to invest. Additionally,
where the Index of Consumer Confidence is concerned, consumers
were less optimistic about the economy with the index declining
slightly in the last two quarters. This pessimism was linked
to concerns about future job prospects.
Without
doubt however a most significant feature of the latest survey
results is that they suggest a radically new perspective among
business leaders on the likely impact of elections. Specifically,
one out of five businessmen in discussing the reasons for
their expectation of growth felt that, whichever party won
the elections, would impact positively on the economy.
This
is a far cry from the traditional perception of the elections
as having a negative impact on the economy and specifically
business planning. Even if a case is argued for a deeper analysis
of the results, these findings definitely augur well for the
economy and suggest a new sophistication regarding the likely
impact of national elections.
This
is happening at a time of great anxiety about a world economy
plagued by uncertainty. This is especially so for the U.S.
economy with the prospect of a war that could impact on oil
prices. Bullishness among local business is therefore most
significant at this time and suggests a strong belief in our
capacity to design appropriate policies to keep the economy
on course in a potentially hostile external climate.
The
policy makers deserve some credit for this. However, it may
not be coincidental that this new found business confidence
comes against the background of stepped up activities by the
local business community in putting what it regards as the
critical issues on the national agenda, as happened with private
sector leaders at the recent Gleaner Editors Forum.
After
the elections business leaders should keep pursuing their
demands. This will keep our democracy vibrant and also help
increase the economy's capacity to meet consumers' concerns
about providing more jobs.
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