I AM not surprised that Bruce Golding has returned to the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). Shortly following the 1997 General Election, I formed the view that Golding had decided to abandon the National Democratic Movement, and from then I concluded that it was only a matter of time.

On my reading, now buttressed by recent events, Golding was always looking back into the JLP. He was in the midst of a mission within the NDM, but like Lot's wife, he just could not keep his eyes trained forward. The possibility that he would return home struck me forcefully following the 1997 elections when I noticed how drained and inattentive he had become.

Golding, then, would come to meetings without any strong plan of action, and perhaps more importantly, without much energy. To some extent, this was understandable: he had been a Member of Parliament for 27 years, and now, suddenly and unceremoniously, that golden ring had been seized from his grasp ­ and it had been seized by Babsy Grange, a former friend, junior colleague and confidante, who now characterised him as a traitor.

Moreover, in the immediate aftermath of the 1997 General Election, funds were low, and political allies were in short supply. In this period, true leadership skills required Golding to rally the troops, to reiterate the message, to press the flesh on the ground, to continue the construction of the NDM from the bottom up. His challenge was to hold on to the middle class base of the party, which was undoubtedly there, while extending its reach to rural and urban communities that continue to exist in conditions of abject poverty notwithstanding the arrival of cellular phones.

But Golding, who once suggested that he was the man on the bridge, was simply not up to the challenge. Instead of fighting the good fight, he turned, it seems, to various schemes designed to chart his return to the JLP house. Of course, moving from one political party to another is not necessarily a point for condemnation, for, in some circumstances, it may well represent some kind of spiritual or intellectual growth on the part of the person who changes allegiance.

PAULINE CONVERSION?

Notice, however, that in the case of Golding, the matter was not that simple. Golding had abandoned the JLP in a manner which ostensibly suggested a Pauline conversion. On the road to Damascus, as Chairman of the JLP and heir-apparent to Seaga, Bruce was struck by a flash of light. Or so we were lead to believe.

He became one of the chief proponents of separation of powers; together, we can dismantle the garrisons, he said; ridiculed persons wedded to "the old style politics"; he skilfully demonstrated the link between the over-centralisation of power in the hands of the Prime Minister and the tribalism that has come to bedevil the Jamaican political culture. And, most importantly, by leaving the JLP, he showed that he was a man prepared to act in defence of his PRINCIPLES even if this did not lead to immediate political advantage. Or so we were led to believe.

Some current members of the NDM have already spoken about the sense of betrayal they feel. So, for instance Brascoe Lee suggested on Cliff Hughes' Impact programme that Golding's latest move raises questions of truth, principles, opportunism and deception. Bruce will have to address those issues in his own way. For me, though, the more difficult questions concern how he will reconcile his earlier assessments of the JLP (made upon leaving that party) with the decision to go back to the house that he once regarded as rotten.

TO EXPLAIN THINGS

Bruce has the capacity to explain things, and as his once united, disunited, now reunited colleague Karl Samuda has noted, he can do it with intellectual style and calm objectivity. So, maybe he will be able to square this particular circle; but I have serious doubts. The fish came from the bottom of the river and told us that sharks were down there: how on earth can the fish then return to the bottom of the river when there are really no strong indications that the river's ecosystem has changed?

And, while he is explaining the paradox of the return to the bottom of the river, it would also be helpful if he could give us his current analysis of the deaths by the gun that occurred in Homestead, St. Catherine, in mid-1996: at the time, some people suggested that the persons killed were supporters of the NDM, and implied that the killings were linked to non-NDM political forces. Does Golding (still) have that view? Also, on a housekeeping point, is the libel suit contemplated by Golding against the Observer newspaper in respect of comments made by Young Jamaica president, Andre Franklyn, still a live issue?

Generally, therefore, Golding has taken a grave risk in returning to the JLP at this time; and this risk ­ based on the undermining of his own credibility, will no doubt be exacerbated by the private unwillingness of some JLP stalwarts to accommodate him. Moreover, given that less than three weeks remain before the General Election, we are all entitled to wonder if this is rank opportunism dressed up in dry leaves. We may also wonder whether Bruce, who was never able to project the NDM to the heights, has the qualities to help a sagging JLP campaign. If he prompts "big money" to assist the JLP, then, perhaps he will be an asset, but beyond that, the impact of his return should not be exaggerated.

Let's put it this way: Bruce's return is not a torpedo to the hull of the PNP ship. Rather, it is more akin to the JLP throwing a dead cat on the PNP deck. For a short time, PNP seafarers will be hurrying and scurrying about wondering what to do, and then someone will wash the dead cat away. No lasting impact.

Bruce's capacity to explain things will be sorely tested in the next few weeks. Many Jamaicans will be inclined to say: "Bruce you fool me one time, you smart; you fool me two time, mi a eediat". That is the challenge faced by the former leader of the party founded by the former JLP Chairman, just the other day, in the Year of our Lord, one thousand nine hundred and ninety five.